Expectancy calculator
What does one trade earn you on average, given your win rate and average win and loss?
- Per 100 trades
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- In R (risk = average loss)
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- Break-even win rate
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- Profit factor
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For guidance only. Every prop firm has its own rules, and they change: always check your firm’s current rules. Not financial advice.
How it works
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. With a 45% win rate, a $400 average win and a $250 average loss: 0.45 × 400 − 0.55 × 250 = $42.50 per trade.
It describes your past results, not the future. The more trades behind the numbers, the more meaningful it is.
Can a strategy win less than half the time and still make money?
Yes, if the average win is large enough compared with the average loss. The break-even win rate shows where that line is.
Let Sweep track this for you.
Sweep checks your risk on every trade, tracks your drawdown and consistency on every prop account, and tells you when you’re ready for the payout.